Turkish Russian Relations: A Rapprochement with Global Importance

Turkish – Russian relations in the fast lane: Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s recent visit to Turkey marked an important cornerstone in Russian – Turkish relations. With the signing of 17 agreements during his visit, the rapprochement between the two countries in recent years elevated the bi-lateral relations to the strategic partnership level that nobody could dream of a decade ago. Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia is much more significant than the country has had with her several other neighbors in the last few years and may reshape the political landscape in the region and beyond. Russia, once one of the two superpowers of the world, is the largest country in the world with a population of 142.9 million and vast resources, and Turkish Russian relations have enormous potential in many areas, including the trade and energy fields.

Russia and Turkey: Old enemies, new strategic partners

During Medvedev’s visit, as the new strategic partners Turkey and Russia formed a High Level Cooperation Council and the visa requirement between the two countries was lifted. The abolition of the visa requirement between Russia and Turkey means more trade, more tourism and a good start for a better integration of the two markets in the following years. This is especially remarkable, when one thinks of the numerous bloody wars between the two nations in the last few centuries. Not to mention the different camps that the two neighboring countries were in during the Cold War, Turkey being the frontier state for the West and feeling the Soviet threat right outside of its borders for several decades.

Turkish Russian cooperation in trade and energy

Turkish and Russian officials signed 17 agreements, the most important ones being in the energy and trade fields. Russia is currently Turkey’s largest trading partner with the yearly volume of $ 38 billion (2008) and this number is projected to reach $ 100 billion in the next five years. There are currently nearly 300 Turkish construction companies operating in Russia. In the energy sphere, Russia will build and operate four nuclear reactors in Turkey and a new oil pipeline will be built between Samsun and Ceyhan that will divide Turkey from north to south, connecting the Black Sea with the Mediterranean. There are also plans for building a joint refinery in Ceyhan in Turkey’s Mediterranean region and joint efforts to market the Russian energy. As a result of the Turkish Russian cooperation in the nuclear field, Russia will share its nuclear and space technology and train Turkish scientists, as the new nuclear reactor in Turkey will require a significant number of Turkish scientists.

With the abolition of visas for up to 30 days taking effect on April 17, 2011, the number of Russian tourists visiting Turkey is expected to increase 20 per cent and reach four million in 2011. Russians are also expected to increase their real estate investments in Turkish resort towns after the new regulation. Currently, Russians form the second largest group visiting Turkey after Germans and it would not be a big surprise for many to see more Russian tourists than Germans in Turkey in the next few years. Brits are the third on the list.

Elimination of visas also made Russia the top target market for Turkish companies. A recent survey conducted by the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TIM) showed the strong hopes for more trade between Russia and Turkey. All 24 leading companies that were surveyed by TIM put Russia on top of their future target markets list. The trade balance between the two countries is currently strongly in favor of Russia, as Turkey imports 62 per cent of its gas and 35 per cent of its oil from its resource rich neighbor. However, the new visa elimination will open the door for Turkish companies to pursue more opportunities in Russia and we may see a decrease in Turkey’s trade deficit with Russia in the future. Considering the hurdles the European Union visa regime puts on Turkey EU trade, this new rapprochement and the eventual economic integration that comes with it may help change the political landscape in the region.

Turkish foreign policy aims zero problems with neighbors and one of the main pillars of this policy is economic integration with neighbors. In the past, Turkey lifted visas and formed “High Level Cooperation Councils” with many of its neighbors, including Iraq, Syria, Jordan, the Gulf States and Greece. Bulgaria and Ukraine are also expected to be added to this list soon. High Level Cooperation Councils are official bodies formed by high level officials of two governments and meet more than once a year under the supervision of prime ministers to find ways to improve the level of cooperation between two countries. Some of these meetings also include joint cabinet meetings. Trade volumes have increased significantly with all the countries that visa restrictions are eliminated reciprocally with.

A rapprochement with global implications

This strategic partnership between Turkey and Russia has a significant importance, as both countries are members of the G-20 and follow active policies in the Middle East as well as in the the Eurasian basin. More noteworthy than the two regional powers pursuing similar policies in major regional issues, including the Iranian nuclear standoff and the Middle East conflict, is the fact that this cooperation in the energy field may change the balance of power in the energy game.

Although Turkey’s global geopolitical importance will increase because of its strengthened energy hub position, on the down side, Turkish economy will be more and more dependent on Russian energy. Turkey currently buys 62 per cent of its gas and 35 per cent of its oil from Russia, and with the new Russian nuclear reactor in the Turkish Mediterranean port town of Akkuyu, the country will be 100 per cent dependent on Russia in nuclear energy. In an attempt to decrease this dependency and to meet its rapidly increasing energy demand, Turkey is planning to reach a production capacity of 15,000 MW by building two more nuclear reactors by 2023. Accordingly, Turkish Energy Minister has been holding talks with Japanese companies for the second and third reactors that are planned to be built in northern Turkey.